Fantasy Football: Trade Evaluation

With the first week of the NFL season just a few days away, the Fantasy Football season is about to begin in earnest. While some of you may still have drafts to complete, and I'll direct those of you who do to my Draft Tips, most of you have probably already completed your drafts. While we prepare for week 1 of the Fantasy Football Season we might be evaluating our rosters and seeing deficiencies or at least areas we wish we were a bit stronger in.



While scouring the waivers is definitely a winnable options, so too are trades. In the NFL we rarely see player for player trades anymore. Before this past season's McCoy for Alonso, the last notable player swap was Champ Bailey and Clinton Portis. Hopefully your Fantasy League is a bit more friendly when it comes to swapping players. Yet the reason trades are so hard to get done in your Fantasy Leagues are likely the same reasons they're so hard to get those trades done in the NFL. Teams value their players differently, and it's hard to compare players out of position or put a number on them. Luckily in Fantasy Football we get a little help with Player Rankings and Cheat Sheets, but even these can fail us at times.

When sending or receiving a trade, it's important to be able to evaluate that trade and see how it benefits you. While the nature of trades is that they're supposed to be balanced (why else would both parties agree to them), there are typically still winners and thus losers of trades. Hopefully after reading this fantasy football trade advice you'll be able to win your trades.

The first part of every trade is considering the league you're in. This needs to be considered for every roster move you make, but it's important when trading players. Things to be considered? Starting Roster Spots, Bench Size, IR Spots, League Scoring Settings, Is it Re-draft/Keeper/Dynasty, how many teams make the playoffs, and who are the managers Experts/Novices/Friends? This is a good starting point, it helps shape the sort of moves you might need to make for your team and gives you a general awareness of what moves should happen and what moves could happen. If you're not considering these things then you might be missing out on value, or just making the wrong move for your team.

The second part is knowing your roster, knowing its strengths and weaknesses, and having a feel for your year long strategy. Who you're starting, where your depth options are for bye weeks and injuries, streaming options, punt weeks, and such so you can get a better sense of where you can afford to move talent and where you need to sure up.

Once you receive the trade, look at each of the players, really look at them. Don't just read the name and rank them off a cheat sheet. Chances are you haven't looked at the other managers players as closely as you have yours. Whats their schedule look like? Are they coming off powder-cake match-ups that inflated their price tag only to head into a horrible stretch, are they a buy low candidate or a sell high? What is their opportunity going forward? What is their playoff schedule like? It's probably a good idea to freshen up on your own players, you probably want to avoid selling low.

Now that you've actually looked at the players in the trade, puzzle out who the best player in the trade is. Not just off rankings, but going forward which player is likely going to be the best (almost every player has upside). In fantasy football trades you almost always want to be the owner receiving the best player in a trade. Why?

You want to be upgrading talent. Players do not contribute to you winning unless they're starting. You have a limited number of starting roster spots so any time a player scores points on your bench you're losing value. Too much depth is a waste (yes you do need some depth, don't trade it all away). If you're able to turn a 15 point starter and a 10 point bench player, into a 19 point starter you're winning the trade. That's the most encouraged and straightforward answer I can give you. This means that you want to turn your depth and multiple players into better players.

Which brings us to another point. Your bench is limited, and while your bench can't contribute to you winning by scoring points, it does give you value. Bench players are essentially assets, ones that can be traded or used. If you're simply sitting on your assets all season you're not getting value out of them. Move those assets. If they're not returning on investment drop them, and looking for new ones. How do you cash in on their value? By trading them. In a typical 10 or 12 man league, there's going to end up being talent that isn't rostered due to bench space limitations. It's not necessarily starting talent, but it could be if the opportunity is right. By trading depth for starters you're not only increasing your chances to win each week, but you're also opening up spots on your bench for additional assets.

If every trade was as simple as getting the best player and trading depth for starters, trades would likely never get done (and perhaps that's why they're still hard to accomplish in fantasy football). There are other considerations, typically ones that come about due to poor circumstances. Mistakes during drafting, poor foresight, or injuries can often put a roster into some uncomfortable situations that make accepting "losing" trades necessary. If your RB1 goes down, and the gems you drafted late never pan out and your RB2 has an ugly stretch of games down the line, well its time to start looking for some RB help. This is when you start looking at trades perhaps a bit differently. Yes the other manager might be getting the best player, but your receiving a couple of RBs you're comfortable starting and still have some upside to them.

Sometimes you have to pay a premium for scarce resources. This is perhaps the primary reason so many Fantasy Football Experts tout the roster as many running backs as possible advice. Running backs are a scarce resource, there's typically less than one startable running back per a team, and a typical league needs 20 to 24 before flex considerations. This means that running backs tend to be a scarce resource, however TE1 can also be a scarce resource that costs a premium. Typically I would advise against trading for them if you have to pay the premium, but sometime times it can't be avoided or you just have the talent elsewhere to pull it off. Particularly down the stretch when you're attempting to make your roster playoff friendly. This is when unloading depth for QB1s and TE1s makes sense when your trying to fit those extra 2 or 3 points into your starting line-up for the post season.

My final bit of evaluation advice would be to never trade for Kickers or Defenses, if your in a bad situation there simply start streaming. It's common place enough that you'll be able to find guides relatively easily. In fact here's dtlerch who will release weekly rankings for streaming defenses. Outside of that, there's just little value to be had in a trade and offering up any positional players for one is just a loss in value in most cases. They're typically unreliable week to week with a tendency to be highly match-up reliant (or in the case of Kickers, random chance). I would extend this advice to QBs as well, but I'd amend that you should rarely trade for a QB (see paragraph above) but trading your own QB for positional players can be good value.

Hopefully after reading this you've come away with some ideas on how to better evaluate the trades being proposed to you. If you took one thing away from this it should be that you want to upgrade your starters. Depth is important, but a player never won anyone a game while sitting on their bench.

Fantasy Football: Free Tom Brady Implications

Mary Altaffer/AP Photo

Brady Stock --Up!-- Brady is obviously a better fantasy player with 4 more games in him. Brady's been going about the off season like he was going to play week 1 all along so there's no catch-up needed we can hope the offense is firing on all cylinders week 1. While the pats have looked bad in preseason games, they've been doing it without Gronk or their starting receivers. Expect the offense to look improved against a horrid Steelers defense week 1, then a horrid Jaguars defense week 2. By then a rhythm should be found and Edelman definitely back and we'll see what Angry Brady and Co. accomplish this fantasy season.

Gronks Stock --Even--
but realistically up, however the Hype was too high around him to draft him any higher (not just you Maggie). Gronk is coming into the season Healthy for the first time in... ever? Well a long time, and I believe it's the primary reason Belichick held him out all preseason. They want to start the season with Gronk at full speed and see if he can't recapture that 2011 domination. Even if he can't? He'll still be the #1 TE by a wide margin, but if he's near 2011 form he'll be a top 5 Fantasy scorer regardless of position and that will truly justify those high draft picks. 

Edelman Stock --Up!--
Edelman benefits from having Brady for 4 games he wasn't going to have him, he's now on target for 100 receptions and 1000 yards, still not going to see a lot of TDs unless the pats bring back the Seattle gameplan. Edelman managed 92 receptions on 135 targets and 10 carried for 98 yards in 14 games last season. 

LaFell Stock --Up!-- LaFell benefits the most from Brady being back those 4 games, can't trust Jimmy to get the ball out to him on the sidelines or for the QB to call his novice QB to throw to the teams #1 Corners. WIth Brady back he's got a good chance to progress in year 2 of the offense. I wouldnt put 100-1000-10 out of his reach!

Amendola Stock --Up!-- Honestly Amendola's stock is tied more to the health of players around him, but Brady playing is a boon for his receivers. If Edelman can't play week 1, Amendola has a chance for 10 receptions and is a great WR3 with WR2 upside in PPR leagues. If you're buying Amendola you're hoping that the Rhythm the Pats found in the post season continues into this season. Brady finally seemed comfortable throwing to Amendola and he saw more targets a game than he did all regular season as the WR3.

Schandler Stock --Up!-- Brady lead offense will find the redzone more which means Schandler should see more chances for TDs. Heavily TD reliant to be a fantasy contributor. This could change if the Patriots unveil a heavy usage of the 2 TE sets, but typically any role player in the pats offense will see heavy use one week and then be ignored for an undetermined amount of time.

Blount Stock --Up!--

While Blount projected to see more work with Brady sidelined for 3 of his games, the offense wasn't going to find the redzone as often and a lot of Blounts value with the Pats is that he's averaging a TD a game with them. Blount's value is also mostly tied up in TDs but he's proven them to be reliable with the Pats. Word in the preseason is Blount has looked slimmer and faster than at any previous time. Perhaps we'll have a 2003 Corey Dillon on our hands?

Gray Stock--WHO THE FUCK KNOWS-- If Gray ever sees the field I expect him to be a Lynch style back... nothing, nothing.. nothing... oh shit 30 yards... nothing... nothing... TD! A sneaky week 1 play for teams in need of a week 1 RB, this isn't the Steelers of old. That said until Gray wins the starting position, his value is tied to Blount's health.  

Brandin Bolden --Up!-- No one drafted him!?! He's the third down back yall! The pats like him, Brady trusts him, and he's the only damn one that can pass block. He'll be hot on the waiver wire once the Pats roll him out and throw him a few passes. He's no Vereen so he's probably not worth rostering but some of you are RB hungry.

Fantasy Football: 5 Rising WRs.

Week 2 of the preseason is about to be wrapped up which means us discerning managers should be taking the time to reevaluate our Rankings. If you're following the advice of my Draft Tips you've been paying close attention to the Preseason this far trying to puzzle out an advantage on your fellow managers. The preseason is a great opportunity for the discerning manager, certainly injuries will play a part in the changing Ranking landscape but there are other nuggets of information out there if you're willing to spend the time sifting their the filler. The eye test is a great mover of fantasy hype, and if you don't trust your own eyes then just tune in to the media. They'll quickly tell you which players are making waves in the preseason and that can help you narrow down you focus. Why are these players making waves? Are they passing the eye test, are they taking full advantage of the opportunities given to them, are they winning their position battles? We can also see which players are being used in ways we might not have expected back in June, glimpse at who might be playing a larger role in the offense than we expected or who might be playing a smaller role. I did warn you about filtering out the silt, so you will need to be aware of fools gold, players whose opportunity in the preseason won't turn into an opportunity during the season. That said, here are 5 players I'll be rising up on my draft rankings, and paying a closer attention to over the next two weeks.


Riser 1: Brandin Cooks

In PPR Cooks is currently coming off the board in round 3-4. This is a steal for what he offers. We can all agree he looked good against that porous New England secondary, but can we also agree he looked healthy? That should sure up some confidence issues you might have had when Cooks lost a chunk of last season due to issues with his thumb. Lets talk more about his opportunity, something that's currently planted him mid 30s in ADP. We all know the Saints are without J. Graham and K. Stills, but the two combined for 148 receptions last season, let alone their 208 targets. That's quite a bit that need to be spread around and Cooks has been far and away the bright spot of the Saints receiving group so far in the preseason. Josh Hill isn't taking the leap most are predicting, and Benjamin Watson is... well Benjamin Watson. M. Colston has been on the decline these past few seasons and while I'd expect a bump in targets you'd have to expect Cooks to receive the largest boost, how large a boost? Well Cooks was on pace for 110 targets last season before the injury to his Thumb. His role in the offense was also expanding as the rookie grew into the offense. He could easily eclipse 9 targets a game which would put him over 144 for the season. We can likely expect the Rookie catch rate to decline slightly as the Saints allow him to stretch the field further and further, but even with a 10% drop (moving Cooks to a 66% catch rate) He'd manage 95 receptions. That's exactly what you're looking for in an elite PPR receiver. Combine that possibility with the explosive playmaking Cooks has been showing off in the preseason and you have an easy case for a top 10 PPR WR.


Riser 2: Davante Adams    

I felt that Adams was going too late in drafts already, as the WR3 in GB he was going to offer WR2 fantasy numbers with upside. Now due to Nelson's injury Adams is going to become the defacto #2 Wide Out in GB and look to assist Cobbs in replacing Nelson's 151 targets from 2014. Now the biggest mover in this Injury is Adams, Cobbs was already seeing 127 targets last season and on the field every snap. Now he'll see a slight rise in value but he was already going in the second round in many drafts and has probably secured himself that position now. Adams however is going to see a large usage increase, becoming the #2 option in Green Bays passing offense regardless of where he ends up lining up. That means the sophomore receiver 66 targets from last season are likely going to double, and he'll have a real chance of securing 100 receptions of his own. Adams should be moved into the low 20s in the WR Rankings, maybe even higher for as high as Cobb was ranked as the #2 in this offense. However Adams is still an unknown commodity, but he has a great opportunity this season and that means it's a great opportunity for Fantasy Managers. If you're landing Adams after the fifth round now you're securing yourself a steal.


Riser 3: Devin Funchess

Another mover due to Injury, Funchess is going to be thrust into the #1 role, much like Kelvin last year. The Panthers aren't likely to bring in another receiver and it will be trial by fire. Kelvin certainly had opportunity last season being targeted 145 times despite struggling at times (his catch rate was an abysmal 50%). What this says to me is that even if Funchess struggles as the #1 in this offense, he'll retain that position and continue to see targets each week (Kelvin averaged 9 a week). Funchess has a lot of ranks to rise, being outside the top 50 at his position. He now has a good chance to be seeing more than 9 targets a week. That's the sort of opportunity you look for in your fantasy players, they can't produce if never given the opportunity. This also says nothing for what Funchess might make of the opportunity. Funchess is a BIG wide receiver, at 6-4, and while his 4.5 40 time drooped him to the second round. Did you happen to know that A.J. green is 6'4 and ran a 4.5 40 time? Or that Dez Bryant runs a 4.5 40 time? So while you might hear a lot of noise about Funchess being a slow receiver, you shouldn't let that dissuade you from thinking that he has the potential to explode onto the scene like those two did. He's certainly being presented with the opportunity to. You'll have to raise Funchess a bit on your board, but he should be around after the 6th round. When your buddy goes ahead and grabs Seattle in the 7th round, you can land a 9+ target 6'4 monster of a receiver to your lineup.


Riser 4: Nelson Agholor

This Riser may be more in my confidence of his draft position than a posturing of moving him higher. His ADP has already been rising and his recent success in the preseason will likely move him forward a bit more. Agholor started Rankings behind the likes of guys like T. Smith, P. Garcon, Charles Johnson, R. White, and E. Decker. He should be going ahead of these individuals. He's demonstrated in the preseason that he can be trusted in the role that we knew he was going to be placed into. That role? the vacated X position of Jeremy Maclin and all 144 targets (If you couldn't tell I'm a big targets fan). As I noted above that's an average of 9 targets a game and that's what you're looking for from WR1s. Agholor is being drafted with the WR2s! Sure Jordan Matthews is listed as the top dog in Philly, but his role isn't changing this season, he's maintaining what he did last season while Agholor is stepping into Maclin's shoes just as Maclin stepped into Jackson's shoes last season. This role that Agholor is stepping into in Chip Kelly's offense, produced Jackon's career season in 2013, and Maclin's career season in 2014 (it should be noted it's guaranteed to produce career high's for Agholor in 2015... no?). His current draft position seems to be due to unfamiliarity of the product and Experts and Managers being unsure of the role he'll be given in Kelly's offense. However! After two weeks in the preseason Agholor currently has 9 receptions for 106 yards and a TD while lining up in that role we've been talking about, add one that the Eagles are already firing on all cylinders and you can explain the why Nelson has been picking up some hype as the preseason playing out so as I mentioned his ADP should be rising on its own, just be sure to not miss out on this year's Maclin!


Riser 5: Allen Robinson

Allen Robinson exploded onto the fantasy scene last season! However his would be memorable season ended early when he broke his right foot in November. In 9 games last season (leaving out week 1 when he was invisible to the Jaguars) Robinson managed 48 receptions for 548 yards and 2 TDs on 80 targets. In his first game starting for the Jaguars (week 3) he was targeted 10 times. Indeed after week 2 Robinson averaged 9 targets a week until his injury (now you should know how I feel about guys receiving 9 targets a game!). His fantasy production with those 9 targets was even worse than Kelvin's but the two were rookies and Bortles was terrible himself last year. We, and the Jaguars, have faith that the two will be better this year and that will result in better production from Robinson's given opportunity this up coming season. To those of you who are worried that Robinson might not receive the same opportunity as he did last year now that Julius Thomas is in town and Hurns and Lee had a chance to establish themselves, WalterFootball.com has kept track of Preseason Targets so far and has shown that Allen Robinson continues to be far and away Blake Bortles favorite target. Robinson's been targeted 9 times from Bortles in the limited time the two have shared the field during these two weeks of preseason football. Julius Thomas? 1 target in two weeks from Bortles. Now, Robinson isn't so far down the rankings as Agholor, but he's still being drafted later than the fourth round with guys like Watkins, Tate, Cooper, and Maclin. While I could see a case based on upside and hype for Cooper to go before Robinson, the other 3 in my mind have far less promising situations for opportunity. Marshall, Waktins and Maclin are in heavy run first schemes while Tate's targets and production fell off a cliff once Megatron returned healthy last season. I'll tell you this, if I was drafting between the five of them, Robinson would be my pick.

So there you have it, my 5 Risers, guys I'll be paying closer attention to over the next two weeks of preseason football and be judging their spot in my rankings. I like the upside of all 5 a bit more than the players currently graded around them and if they're not moving a full round up they're definitely my first option off the board in those rounds. You'll have to move those two injury risers up your board if you want a chance at them however, don't be caught sleeping on your rankings. Preseason football may be the light beer of football, but it's still beer! 

Fantasy Football: 5 Players I Like More Than You.

So a few days ago I submitted my 5 Draft Tips for your viewing. This update I'm going to present to you 5 players that I like more than you do and will let you know why you should be valuing these players higher than you are. That doesn't necessarily mean you should select them higher, or reach for them, but it does mean that you might want to reconsider them as options and adjust your draft plan accordingly.

Player Number 1: Cam Newton 
Cam Newton is currently floating around the back half of fantasy starting QBs from #7-#10 though he appears to be on the upswing as experts start to overlook his #14 finish last season and remember just what healthy Cam Newton has accomplished in the past for us Fantasy Managers.This past season Newton dealt with not only the loss of his entire receiving corps and a terrible O-Line, but also had a couple of injuries he was dealing with throughout the season. Prior to this past outlier of a season Newton had never finished worse than #5. Newton played through his injuries and has the body to absorb the punishment and looks 100% headed into this season. Additionally he's had a year with Kelvin Benjamin and the Panthers add Funchess to play opposite him, while still having Greg Olsen my pick for the #3 TE this season. While I can't promise you that they've solved their OLine woes the Panthers have certainly looked towards shoring that up bringing in Michael Oher and Jonathan Martin, while also returning Nate Chandler from a season ending knee injury and drafting Daryl Williams. However my #1 reason for liking Cam Newton more than you? His team faces only 2 projected top 10 fantasy defenses this season, and only 3 top 15 defenses. Better yet? They face #1 Def Seattle, then #10 Def Houston, and #15 Def Dallas. There is not an easier fantasy schedule out there at the moment, Newton is someone you'll be able to start with confidence week in and week out and it won't cost you a draft pick in the first three rounds to secure him.

Player Number 2: Mark Ingram

Mark Ingram isn't being given the credit he deserves this season. While fellow rushers Anderson and Hill sneak into the top 10 at the position, Ingram is slipping into the second or third round. ESPN has him in the late 20s on their 200 cheat sheets, and you'd be hard pressed to find him much higher. Ingram plays for NO and no one has ever been too sure what Payton was going to do with his committee, however if you were an Ingram owner last year you might be as high on him this season as I, and the Saints with their 4yr/16m extension, are. Ingram was another player who dealt with injuries last season and because of this his scoring was inconsistent and he felt well outside the top 10 at his position. Yet when Ingram saw the field, he averaged over 15 points a game. Payton chucked the committee approach out New Orleans and treated Ingram like the bell cow they drafted him to be. Ingram was firing on all cylinders early last season and when he came back at the end of the season he didn't miss a beat. I expect Ingram to see 20+ touches a game and to produce with those touches, you can't put 8 in the box against Brees and anyone hedging their bets against that areal offense is going to be giving easy fantasy points for Ingram owners. If the committee and specifically Spiller is still causing you to drop Ingram's stock, consider this, Payton has stated that the Saints need to be more balanced this season and the departure of Jimmy Graham and Kenny Stills strips away a good deal of the targets Brees had last season. Compound those facts with their acquisitions on the OLine, The Saints drafted Andrus Peat in the first round with pick 13 while adding Max Unger in the trade that sent Graham to SEA, and I think you can put faith that NO is looking to use their new found running game more next season. Ingram is currently being had in the third round and I have full confidence he'll produce as an RB1.

Player Number 3: Jordan Matthews

Last season Jeremy Maclin was being drafted in a similar position to where Jordan Matthews is currently being drafted (to be fair, Maclin and Matthews are being drafted in a similar position this year as well, which should be a sign if you ask me). Maclin was coming off an injury and Chip Kelly's offense still wasn't fully understood. Maclin finished in the top 10 for WRs last season after posting a 85/143 - 1318 - 10 line. In Matthews rookie campaign playing across from Maclin, Matthews posted a 67/105 - 872 - 8 line. Matthews projects to be the primary target for Bradford going into next season and I believe will see a 40 target increase in workload over last season. Even if Matthews catch rate of about 64% and YPC of 13 didn't increase his line would like 92/145 - 1197 - 11 which is a significant jump from the projections you're seeing from experts. Sure Nelson Agholor will be starting but that bodes worse for Josh Huff or Riley Cooper than it does for Matthews. We're also assuming that the Eagles offense doesn't progress further with another year of Chip tutelage and with Sam Bradford under center. I'm very high on Matthews and I believe his floor and ceiling are both higher than being suggested. I'm drafting him before guys like Andre Johnson, Keenan Allen, Vincent Jackson, and DeSean Jackson. If your in a PPR league this guys value is a steal.

Player Number 4: Andre Ellington

Ellington seems to be receiving some backlash for health issues from last season and perhaps a few too many experts having him on their teams after touting him as a first round back and finding him available in the second. This season Ellington has gone from overhyped to underhyped. I'll admit part of the reason I'm so high on Ellington is due to added value he brings in PPR leagues, but even outside of those he's perhaps being looked at a bit too late. He's currently being drafted behind guys such as T.J. Yeldon, Carlos Hyde, C.J. Spiller, Lagarrette Blount, Joige Bell, and Charles Sims... That's Criminal. Even if you were high on these untested RBs their situations are still a far cry from Ellington whose coming off an injury laden campaign that actually wasn't too horrific all things considered, such as injury woes to their QBs and those 8 man boxes. Ellington took his number of bumps last season being undersized for a feature back role where he carried the ball 200 times despite injuries. He's put on some muscle this season and still has bell cow duties while having an improved OLine and his starting QB back. Speaking of that improved Oline, Jared Veldheer's arrival last year sparked a turnaround for that maligned line, however the Cardinals weren't done yet adding rookie D.J. Humphries in the first round of the draft and 3x Pro-Bowl guard Mike Iupata in free agency. Ellington is poised to break onto the fantasy scene this season, looking more like his 5.5 YPC rookie self than his injury laden 3.3 sophomore campaign.

Player Number 5: Austin Seferian-Jenkins 

Sefarian-Jenkins could be a player not on many of your radars, and that's probably due to the fact that he's outside the top 12 TE of almost every expert's cheat sheet for the position. Austin plays for Tampa Bay if you weren't aware, I most certainly wasn't before this past off season, and if you hadn't they've had a bit of a changing of guard. Two important changes are happening that are going to help this sophomore make a leap in production this season. First, the Bucs drafted Winston who should be an instant improvement over McCown and Glennon. Second, the Bucs have a new OC one Dirk Koetter who has a history of successful TEs in his scheme including the likes of Todd Heap, Zack Miller, Marcedes Lewis, and Tony Gonzalez most recently. At the very least, we know that Koetter will feature Austin much more consistently than the Bucs did last year where he saw action in only 9 games with two games over 5 targets and four games with 3 or less. Koetter likes to involve his TEs and that bodes well for rookie QB Winston and doubly so for Sefarian-Jenkins. This isn't a player you're going to have to change your draft plans for or even reach for, he's just someone to have an eye on late when you're looking to fill your roster with sleepers/high up-side talent. I'd definitely suggest tagging him if you're unsure of your starter at TE, Austin should have every opportunity for breaking out this season assuming he beats out Tim Wright for the starting spot. If Austin fails to do such and Wright secures the starting position, his flashes in NE last season warrants a roster spot in all formats.

There you have it, my 5 players that I like more than you. Comment below with players you like more than me, or perhaps you've a bone to pick about a certain mention that you're not nearly as high on as I am. I'll be bringing you 5 players that I dislike a whole lot more than you next so keep an eye out for it. 

Fantasy Football: Draft Tips

Fantasy Football
5 Draft Tips

So Football Season is finally upon us! The first game of the season, the Hall of Fame Game, was played this past Sunday. This means it's time for Fantasy Football! Which, if you hadn't noticed, combined two of my favorite things, Fantasy and Football. If you haven't been paying close attention during the off-season like many of my friends then you have quite a bit of catching up to do (one of them wasn't even aware Jimmy Graham had been shipped up to Seattle). The other over eager sorts may have already participated in their drafts, we'll go over why that's bad in a bit. So it's time to start getting ready, perhaps a bit late but better now than the day before your draft. Never be the manager who shows up to his draft and takes a look at the cheatsheet for the first time as the draft begins!

Here are my Five Draft Tips for you managers, whether your picking it up for the first time or a twenty year vet. 

I. Don't draft too early.
I understand, we're all excited that football is back and it's fantasy football season however if you draft too soon your missing out on an entire month full of fantasy football developments. Draft too early and you could wind up being the manager who spent their first round draft pick on Adrian Peterson before he was suspended for the year, or this season might have invested a top pick on Arian Foster whose now going close to the fourth round. 

It's about more than just avoiding injuries as doubtlessly you cannot avoid them all, injuries happen all season. In addition to avoiding these training camp/preseason injuries though you'll get to watch all these preseason positional battles shape up. You'll know whose coming out ahead in these committee backfields or whose edging up into WR2 territory instead of WR3/4/5. Alternatively if you're paying close enough attention you might be able to prize a few signals from behind the seasonal smoke screen teams produce this time of year. You'll hear about which players are really surprising coaches, which players are ready to make the jump, the typical noise out of training camp. Yet if you pay closer attention, you'll see developing plot lines and might be able to prize out which players are poised for bigger roles on their teams which leads to better opportunity for fantasy production. Take note. 

II. Create your own cheat sheet and rankings
This is could be tedious process for some, but even if you're simply copy and pasting your preferred experts rankings down you're doing yourself a favor. Once you have this down in your own google doc or excel program you're able to make whatever edits you feel are necessary. Sure they're your favorite expert but perhaps you've been burned by a certain player one too many times you can strike them right off your rankings or move them further down. All that attention you've been paying to preseason, maybe you're liking a certain player more than others move them on up. Additionally you'll be able to adjust on the fly to injures and put your own comfort into the rankings, this means less confusion when the draft clock is ticking down and you need to decide on who to draft. 


Another benefit of creating your own rankings and cheat sheet is you'll get more familiar with the names and rankings, while also allowing you more freedom for moving around your targets in the later rounds. There's no point in waiting until round 10 on a player you really like just because of their Average Draft Position (ADP), go ahead and rank them above all those other players your favorite expert has above them. This relates back to the comfort mentioned above, if you've got your target player ranked around the 8th round on your own rankings you'll feel more comfortable and thus inclined to go ahead and draft them there and make sure you get your guy rather than waiting and risk losing them while drafting guys you feel less sure about. 

III. Go in with a plan then be prepared to scrap it.
When you head into your draft you want to have some sort of vision for your team, so sort of plan that you'd like to execute. This should be specific to you as a manager and tuned to your league specifically. Things like how large, scoring, and the level of skill of your other managers go into it along with things such as how active you are on the waiver wire, do you make trades, do you want steady scoring from each of your players or are you okay with boom or bust players . A lot of things can go into creating this plan, but you should have one. Some idea of what you want and who you're targeting in each round. It helps you narrow down the field of 200+ players you could be looking at and allows you to focus on your objectives. Some players still attune to RB/RB in the first round, others look for RB/WR, others are adamant Best Pick Available (BPA), whatever suits you plan it out, the entire draft as impossible as that sounds. If you're nabbing a workhorse in round one and then a high ceiling WR in round two, who are you looking at in round 3, where are you picking up another RB at what range are you going to look for a QB. Thinking about these things allows you to preemptively see which players might be around when you're thinking about certain positions and give you goals for players which allows you to create a cheat sheet for your draft. Just be prepared to throw it all out the window.

No draft is ever going to go the way you planned, but hopefully with the pre-planning that you've done and the cheat sheets you've crafted you'll be able to maneuver when things go to hell. If you try to stick too rigidly to your original plan you'll end up with players you're really not all that high on and unhappy with your draft. Be prepared to throw out what you had planned and start forming a new plan ahead. You prepared for this, what players would you be happy with having on your team and where are they if you know you'll have plenty of WRs you're high on available in round 4, don't panic when your round 2 WRs of choice aren't there and adapt. Be prepared to be unprepared. 

IV. Buck the Trend.
We just talked about having a plan and then being prepared to chuck it. When do you chuck the plan? Well if you had specific players involved having them be unavailable forces you to adapt. However, if you're just looking at positions in general at certain points in the draft bucking the trend is an important thing to remember. You should never be towards the end of the run at a position, a run will suck talent out of one group while leaving talent available at another. This used to be very apparent when the RB/RB start of the draft was king of fantasy, In a 10 man fantasy draft you'd see 10 RBs drafted in the first round and then the second round would largely be comprised of further RBs being drafted. As the 10th man in that league's snake draft you're getting the 10th and 11th best RBs, if you were the 8th man you would be getting the 8th and 13th best RBs in the league. If the trend continued too far someone could end up having the 4th best RB and the 1st best WR! Would you rather be 4 and 1 or 8 and 13th? Runs benefit the player starting and ending them. Buck the trend, even if it's going against your plan. 


This isn't to say you should not draft a player you're high on just because there's been a run on his position. If the five players before you have all drafted a running back, but one you're confident about is still there then go ahead and take him. Just be aware of runs and the value that could be left on the board because of them. Additionally never panic just because there is a run happening. This is where it helps to be prepared, what other players are you comfortable with at this position and when are they supposed to go? Wait until closer to then, perhaps nudging them up a bit if the position has thinned out, but see what value has been left on the board. 
V. The Draft doesn't end at its conclusion.
Sure the draft has officially ended, teams are filled and draft results are in. However just like the NFL has a frenzy over UDFAs, your team should look through the UDFAs (typically on waivers) after a draft. See which players didn't end up on rosters and note which ones have a chance to have an impact immediately or as a depth option. The season is long and there are always players that explode onto the fantasy scene within the first couple of the weeks that went undrafted in all but the most diehard leagues. So take note and measure who you might move if the opportunity presents itself for those players. There is caution to this tale, fantasy football managers tend to be fickle and the week 1 sky is falling is an annual tradition. Try not to bite too hard on week 1 results tempered expectations for your own team and be wary of the flash in the pan UDFAs. Keep an eye on their development over the first few weeks and see whose moved up the depth charts, who's getting bigger opportunities than expecting, and who's making the most of their opportunities. 
Additionally after the draft you should analyze your roster and then the rosters of the rest of your leagues. Not particularly any user who was auto-drafted they're likely going to be unhappy with their team and looking to make moves. Now that you've drafted your team where are  your strengths and weaknesses. Do you have glaring weaknesses, is your depth shallow anywhere, do you have TOO much talent somewhere (I for one abhor having too much talent, it drives me more crazy than being weak somewhere). If you can puzzle out some possible moves among other teams that might fix some holes, or get you a player you were high on for a reasonable price go ahead and send out some offers. It never hurts to ask! Trading is an entire other beast that I'll touch upon soon, but just don't oversell your interest in a player and you don't want to overpay just because you're high on a player. Once it's all said and done, analyze your roster for week 1 and take note of whose still available and what moves might become necessary as the year progresses.

There you have it, my five draft tips for you. I hope these help you at least review your pre-draft routine and maybe give you a a few ideas for implementing for your own draft day. Good luck! Thanks for the read. It's a good day for writing.

Andrew