Fantasy Football
5 Draft Tips
So Football Season is finally upon us! The first game of the season, the Hall of Fame Game, was played this past Sunday. This means it's time for Fantasy Football! Which, if you hadn't noticed, combined two of my favorite things, Fantasy and Football. If you haven't been paying close attention during the off-season like many of my friends then you have quite a bit of catching up to do (one of them wasn't even aware Jimmy Graham had been shipped up to Seattle). The other over eager sorts may have already participated in their drafts, we'll go over why that's bad in a bit. So it's time to start getting ready, perhaps a bit late but better now than the day before your draft. Never be the manager who shows up to his draft and takes a look at the cheatsheet for the first time as the draft begins!
Here are my Five Draft Tips for you managers, whether your picking it up for the first time or a twenty year vet.
I. Don't draft too early.
I understand, we're all excited that football is back and it's fantasy football season however if you draft too soon your missing out on an entire month full of fantasy football developments. Draft too early and you could wind up being the manager who spent their first round draft pick on Adrian Peterson before he was suspended for the year, or this season might have invested a top pick on Arian Foster whose now going close to the fourth round.
It's about more than just avoiding injuries as doubtlessly you cannot avoid them all, injuries happen all season. In addition to avoiding these training camp/preseason injuries though you'll get to watch all these preseason positional battles shape up. You'll know whose coming out ahead in these committee backfields or whose edging up into WR2 territory instead of WR3/4/5. Alternatively if you're paying close enough attention you might be able to prize a few signals from behind the seasonal smoke screen teams produce this time of year. You'll hear about which players are really surprising coaches, which players are ready to make the jump, the typical noise out of training camp. Yet if you pay closer attention, you'll see developing plot lines and might be able to prize out which players are poised for bigger roles on their teams which leads to better opportunity for fantasy production. Take note.
II. Create your own cheat sheet and rankings
This is could be tedious process for some, but even if you're simply copy and pasting your preferred experts rankings down you're doing yourself a favor. Once you have this down in your own google doc or excel program you're able to make whatever edits you feel are necessary. Sure they're your favorite expert but perhaps you've been burned by a certain player one too many times you can strike them right off your rankings or move them further down. All that attention you've been paying to preseason, maybe you're liking a certain player more than others move them on up. Additionally you'll be able to adjust on the fly to injures and put your own comfort into the rankings, this means less confusion when the draft clock is ticking down and you need to decide on who to draft.
Another benefit of creating your own rankings and cheat sheet is you'll get more familiar with the names and rankings, while also allowing you more freedom for moving around your targets in the later rounds. There's no point in waiting until round 10 on a player you really like just because of their Average Draft Position (ADP), go ahead and rank them above all those other players your favorite expert has above them. This relates back to the comfort mentioned above, if you've got your target player ranked around the 8th round on your own rankings you'll feel more comfortable and thus inclined to go ahead and draft them there and make sure you get your guy rather than waiting and risk losing them while drafting guys you feel less sure about.
III. Go in with a plan then be prepared to scrap it.
When you head into your draft you want to have some sort of vision for your team, so sort of plan that you'd like to execute. This should be specific to you as a manager and tuned to your league specifically. Things like how large, scoring, and the level of skill of your other managers go into it along with things such as how active you are on the waiver wire, do you make trades, do you want steady scoring from each of your players or are you okay with boom or bust players . A lot of things can go into creating this plan, but you should have one. Some idea of what you want and who you're targeting in each round. It helps you narrow down the field of 200+ players you could be looking at and allows you to focus on your objectives. Some players still attune to RB/RB in the first round, others look for RB/WR, others are adamant Best Pick Available (BPA), whatever suits you plan it out, the entire draft as impossible as that sounds. If you're nabbing a workhorse in round one and then a high ceiling WR in round two, who are you looking at in round 3, where are you picking up another RB at what range are you going to look for a QB. Thinking about these things allows you to preemptively see which players might be around when you're thinking about certain positions and give you goals for players which allows you to create a cheat sheet for your draft. Just be prepared to throw it all out the window.
No draft is ever going to go the way you planned, but hopefully with the pre-planning that you've done and the cheat sheets you've crafted you'll be able to maneuver when things go to hell. If you try to stick too rigidly to your original plan you'll end up with players you're really not all that high on and unhappy with your draft. Be prepared to throw out what you had planned and start forming a new plan ahead. You prepared for this, what players would you be happy with having on your team and where are they if you know you'll have plenty of WRs you're high on available in round 4, don't panic when your round 2 WRs of choice aren't there and adapt. Be prepared to be unprepared.
IV. Buck the Trend.
We just talked about having a plan and then being prepared to chuck it. When do you chuck the plan? Well if you had specific players involved having them be unavailable forces you to adapt. However, if you're just looking at positions in general at certain points in the draft bucking the trend is an important thing to remember. You should never be towards the end of the run at a position, a run will suck talent out of one group while leaving talent available at another. This used to be very apparent when the RB/RB start of the draft was king of fantasy, In a 10 man fantasy draft you'd see 10 RBs drafted in the first round and then the second round would largely be comprised of further RBs being drafted. As the 10th man in that league's snake draft you're getting the 10th and 11th best RBs, if you were the 8th man you would be getting the 8th and 13th best RBs in the league. If the trend continued too far someone could end up having the 4th best RB and the 1st best WR! Would you rather be 4 and 1 or 8 and 13th? Runs benefit the player starting and ending them. Buck the trend, even if it's going against your plan.
This isn't to say you should not draft a player you're high on just because there's been a run on his position. If the five players before you have all drafted a running back, but one you're confident about is still there then go ahead and take him. Just be aware of runs and the value that could be left on the board because of them. Additionally never panic just because there is a run happening. This is where it helps to be prepared, what other players are you comfortable with at this position and when are they supposed to go? Wait until closer to then, perhaps nudging them up a bit if the position has thinned out, but see what value has been left on the board.
V. The Draft doesn't end at its conclusion.
Sure the draft has officially ended, teams are filled and draft results are in. However just like the NFL has a frenzy over UDFAs, your team should look through the UDFAs (typically on waivers) after a draft. See which players didn't end up on rosters and note which ones have a chance to have an impact immediately or as a depth option. The season is long and there are always players that explode onto the fantasy scene within the first couple of the weeks that went undrafted in all but the most diehard leagues. So take note and measure who you might move if the opportunity presents itself for those players. There is caution to this tale, fantasy football managers tend to be fickle and the week 1 sky is falling is an annual tradition. Try not to bite too hard on week 1 results tempered expectations for your own team and be wary of the flash in the pan UDFAs. Keep an eye on their development over the first few weeks and see whose moved up the depth charts, who's getting bigger opportunities than expecting, and who's making the most of their opportunities.
Additionally after the draft you should analyze your roster and then the rosters of the rest of your leagues. Not particularly any user who was auto-drafted they're likely going to be unhappy with their team and looking to make moves. Now that you've drafted your team where are your strengths and weaknesses. Do you have glaring weaknesses, is your depth shallow anywhere, do you have TOO much talent somewhere (I for one abhor having too much talent, it drives me more crazy than being weak somewhere). If you can puzzle out some possible moves among other teams that might fix some holes, or get you a player you were high on for a reasonable price go ahead and send out some offers. It never hurts to ask! Trading is an entire other beast that I'll touch upon soon, but just don't oversell your interest in a player and you don't want to overpay just because you're high on a player. Once it's all said and done, analyze your roster for week 1 and take note of whose still available and what moves might become necessary as the year progresses.
There you have it, my five draft tips for you. I hope these help you at least review your pre-draft routine and maybe give you a a few ideas for implementing for your own draft day. Good luck! Thanks for the read. It's a good day for writing.
Andrew
Here are my Five Draft Tips for you managers, whether your picking it up for the first time or a twenty year vet.
I. Don't draft too early.
I understand, we're all excited that football is back and it's fantasy football season however if you draft too soon your missing out on an entire month full of fantasy football developments. Draft too early and you could wind up being the manager who spent their first round draft pick on Adrian Peterson before he was suspended for the year, or this season might have invested a top pick on Arian Foster whose now going close to the fourth round.
It's about more than just avoiding injuries as doubtlessly you cannot avoid them all, injuries happen all season. In addition to avoiding these training camp/preseason injuries though you'll get to watch all these preseason positional battles shape up. You'll know whose coming out ahead in these committee backfields or whose edging up into WR2 territory instead of WR3/4/5. Alternatively if you're paying close enough attention you might be able to prize a few signals from behind the seasonal smoke screen teams produce this time of year. You'll hear about which players are really surprising coaches, which players are ready to make the jump, the typical noise out of training camp. Yet if you pay closer attention, you'll see developing plot lines and might be able to prize out which players are poised for bigger roles on their teams which leads to better opportunity for fantasy production. Take note.
II. Create your own cheat sheet and rankings
This is could be tedious process for some, but even if you're simply copy and pasting your preferred experts rankings down you're doing yourself a favor. Once you have this down in your own google doc or excel program you're able to make whatever edits you feel are necessary. Sure they're your favorite expert but perhaps you've been burned by a certain player one too many times you can strike them right off your rankings or move them further down. All that attention you've been paying to preseason, maybe you're liking a certain player more than others move them on up. Additionally you'll be able to adjust on the fly to injures and put your own comfort into the rankings, this means less confusion when the draft clock is ticking down and you need to decide on who to draft.
Another benefit of creating your own rankings and cheat sheet is you'll get more familiar with the names and rankings, while also allowing you more freedom for moving around your targets in the later rounds. There's no point in waiting until round 10 on a player you really like just because of their Average Draft Position (ADP), go ahead and rank them above all those other players your favorite expert has above them. This relates back to the comfort mentioned above, if you've got your target player ranked around the 8th round on your own rankings you'll feel more comfortable and thus inclined to go ahead and draft them there and make sure you get your guy rather than waiting and risk losing them while drafting guys you feel less sure about.
III. Go in with a plan then be prepared to scrap it.
When you head into your draft you want to have some sort of vision for your team, so sort of plan that you'd like to execute. This should be specific to you as a manager and tuned to your league specifically. Things like how large, scoring, and the level of skill of your other managers go into it along with things such as how active you are on the waiver wire, do you make trades, do you want steady scoring from each of your players or are you okay with boom or bust players . A lot of things can go into creating this plan, but you should have one. Some idea of what you want and who you're targeting in each round. It helps you narrow down the field of 200+ players you could be looking at and allows you to focus on your objectives. Some players still attune to RB/RB in the first round, others look for RB/WR, others are adamant Best Pick Available (BPA), whatever suits you plan it out, the entire draft as impossible as that sounds. If you're nabbing a workhorse in round one and then a high ceiling WR in round two, who are you looking at in round 3, where are you picking up another RB at what range are you going to look for a QB. Thinking about these things allows you to preemptively see which players might be around when you're thinking about certain positions and give you goals for players which allows you to create a cheat sheet for your draft. Just be prepared to throw it all out the window.
No draft is ever going to go the way you planned, but hopefully with the pre-planning that you've done and the cheat sheets you've crafted you'll be able to maneuver when things go to hell. If you try to stick too rigidly to your original plan you'll end up with players you're really not all that high on and unhappy with your draft. Be prepared to throw out what you had planned and start forming a new plan ahead. You prepared for this, what players would you be happy with having on your team and where are they if you know you'll have plenty of WRs you're high on available in round 4, don't panic when your round 2 WRs of choice aren't there and adapt. Be prepared to be unprepared.
IV. Buck the Trend.
We just talked about having a plan and then being prepared to chuck it. When do you chuck the plan? Well if you had specific players involved having them be unavailable forces you to adapt. However, if you're just looking at positions in general at certain points in the draft bucking the trend is an important thing to remember. You should never be towards the end of the run at a position, a run will suck talent out of one group while leaving talent available at another. This used to be very apparent when the RB/RB start of the draft was king of fantasy, In a 10 man fantasy draft you'd see 10 RBs drafted in the first round and then the second round would largely be comprised of further RBs being drafted. As the 10th man in that league's snake draft you're getting the 10th and 11th best RBs, if you were the 8th man you would be getting the 8th and 13th best RBs in the league. If the trend continued too far someone could end up having the 4th best RB and the 1st best WR! Would you rather be 4 and 1 or 8 and 13th? Runs benefit the player starting and ending them. Buck the trend, even if it's going against your plan.
This isn't to say you should not draft a player you're high on just because there's been a run on his position. If the five players before you have all drafted a running back, but one you're confident about is still there then go ahead and take him. Just be aware of runs and the value that could be left on the board because of them. Additionally never panic just because there is a run happening. This is where it helps to be prepared, what other players are you comfortable with at this position and when are they supposed to go? Wait until closer to then, perhaps nudging them up a bit if the position has thinned out, but see what value has been left on the board.
V. The Draft doesn't end at its conclusion.
Sure the draft has officially ended, teams are filled and draft results are in. However just like the NFL has a frenzy over UDFAs, your team should look through the UDFAs (typically on waivers) after a draft. See which players didn't end up on rosters and note which ones have a chance to have an impact immediately or as a depth option. The season is long and there are always players that explode onto the fantasy scene within the first couple of the weeks that went undrafted in all but the most diehard leagues. So take note and measure who you might move if the opportunity presents itself for those players. There is caution to this tale, fantasy football managers tend to be fickle and the week 1 sky is falling is an annual tradition. Try not to bite too hard on week 1 results tempered expectations for your own team and be wary of the flash in the pan UDFAs. Keep an eye on their development over the first few weeks and see whose moved up the depth charts, who's getting bigger opportunities than expecting, and who's making the most of their opportunities.
Additionally after the draft you should analyze your roster and then the rosters of the rest of your leagues. Not particularly any user who was auto-drafted they're likely going to be unhappy with their team and looking to make moves. Now that you've drafted your team where are your strengths and weaknesses. Do you have glaring weaknesses, is your depth shallow anywhere, do you have TOO much talent somewhere (I for one abhor having too much talent, it drives me more crazy than being weak somewhere). If you can puzzle out some possible moves among other teams that might fix some holes, or get you a player you were high on for a reasonable price go ahead and send out some offers. It never hurts to ask! Trading is an entire other beast that I'll touch upon soon, but just don't oversell your interest in a player and you don't want to overpay just because you're high on a player. Once it's all said and done, analyze your roster for week 1 and take note of whose still available and what moves might become necessary as the year progresses.
There you have it, my five draft tips for you. I hope these help you at least review your pre-draft routine and maybe give you a a few ideas for implementing for your own draft day. Good luck! Thanks for the read. It's a good day for writing.
Andrew
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