Fantasy Football
5 Players I'm Avoiding
If you missed it here are 5 players I like more than you.
I've got my friends and family league offline-draft coming up and to prepare I've been doing a number of mock drafts. I think it's important to actively draft before your leagues that way you'll have a sense of where clusters of players are going and where you might need to reach or where you might be able to wait depending on where you're drafting. I've also noticed that I'm avoiding certain players, players I've no interest in drafting even if they're the "best options" left on the board. Here are 5 players that I'm avoiding in this year's draft.
First Round: Andrew Luck
Luck's ADP has been creeping to the first round, but even in the second round I'm avoiding Luck and really any QB. This isn't to say I don't believe Luck will be the best fantasy QB (it's possible) but rather I don't like the value of taking a QB in the first or even second round. The first three rounds are really where you should be drafting a solid core of consistent performers for your fantasy team where they'll be getting 20+ touches as an RB, or 10+ touches as a WR. There's actually a very limited number of these despite potential upside candidates or "sleepers", there are perhaps 5 first round graded RBs these days? Another handful are going in the second where they might have previously gone in the first? If you want to get yourself a pair of bell-cow backs you're going to have to invest early. I actually like the value you can find at RB late, but most of that is potential and I prefer to have some solid choice up top to lock in my weekly fantasy scores. Alternatively there are plenty of other fantasy options at QB that will offer the weekly boom potential that Luck will without the cost of a first or second round choice. Big Ben for instance can be had in the fourth or fifth round and he'll be working in an offense that's a very close proximity to the Colts in terms of passing volume and surrounding talent, while also having perhaps a worse Def. I'm avoiding Luck, and if you're looking for top tier QB talent I'd say look for Big Ben in rounds 4-5.
Second Round: LeSean McCoy
Previously my avoid in the first round, McCoy's ADP has been dropping likely due to a combination of "expert" pessimism and injury woes. Even in the second round I'm still avoiding McCoy, I just don't like his situation. Certainly Rex Ryan likes to run the ball, the Bills will HAVE to run the ball, and the Bills have a defense that makes relying on the run feasible, yet I do not trust that offensive line to allow McCoy room to run. Sure the Bills have more weapons than Rex had during his time with the Jets, however the Jets have had a much better line than the one the Bills are working with this season. Did you watch last night's preseason game? The Bills struggled getting anything going on the ground against the Browns line, didn't manage to score until the final minutes of the game against the Browns 3s and 4s. McCoy is a talent, and he's certainly going to be given an opportunity, I just don't like his chance at producing like an RB1 when I have choices like Jeremy Hill, Matt Forte going just before and C.J. Anderson, Justin Forsett, or Melvin Gordon going just after. I believe there are "more sure" options around McCoy's ADP that I'd rather go with.
Third Round: Frank Gore
I'm just not high on Gore, I haven't been in a while and it's more to do with me than to do with the player. I won't be trying to convince you to skip on Gore as well, but I just like others around him more. The Colts have been very pass oriented due to their "inability" to run the ball despite the only RB whose appeared to have struggled for them being Richardson. Gore is the most talented RB they've had in a long while but Gore is also 32 and going to a new system with Indy. The 49ers used Gore as their bell-cow and while Indy will lean more on their running game now that Gore's in town, they're still likely to end up around 40:50 in the Run:Pass split. He does have a few positives going for him, You can't put 8 in the box against him like they did in SF, he'll have plenty of chances to score, and he'll likely have a lot of garbage time carries as the Colts try to hold onto a lead. So perhaps you shouldn't be avoiding this back whose going on the back end of the third round and is likely going to see 20 touches a game (He'll likely see ~5 targets in the passing game ea. week), but I am. Preferring the receiving options in the third round such as Hopkins, Matthews, and Cooks each of which are set to be the primary target on their offenses.
Fourth Round: Carlos Hyde
Perhaps I just don't like running backs? The fourth round is my least favorite round to be drafting in right now. I just don't like the talent that's being slotted into it so I find myself increasingly likely to draft a QB here (which punts the QB Streaming Strat) or "reaching" a bit on a chance like Abdullah or Stewart, neither sure things but both looking primed for great seasons. Carlos Hyde is perhaps my least favorite back slotted in this season and it's due to the team he's on. It's increasingly likely that the 49ers are going to be much worse than what I've been hearing. They've lost a ton of talent this past offseason yet apparently they're still going to be competitive despite also having lost their HC. I'm passing on this team, I don't believe they have the defense to keep them in games and thus allow them to pound the rock 20+ times. Nor do we know if Hyde can handle a full season as a Bell-Cow or that the Smith-Kaep connection is going to force that 8th man out of the box. I'm staying away from Hyde and I like talent available in the 5th and 6th more than I do this RB.
Fifth Round: DeSean Jackson
He'll produce like a fifth round, it's essentially guaranteed, but in my PPR league's I'm avoiding this individual at all costs. He's got a crap shoot of a QB throwing him the ball behind perhaps the worst line in football. Additionally that team wants to pound the rock, which will likely end up in a lot of third and longs and 3&Outs. He just doesn't receive the targets to justify the pick, despite his Fantasy Points per a Target being relatively high compared to other options. Jackson is exactly what he's been for a while, and he's probably good value for you in the fifth round in a standard league. However even in a .5 PPR league I'm avoiding Jackson even if he's slipping the fifth round, the targets just aren't there and you'll find options like Marshall, Cooper, and Edelman just a few spots later.
So there you have it, my 5 players I'm avoiding this year. Not a one has been drafted in any of my Mocks, nor will they find themselves on my league rosters once those drafts happen. Let me know in the comments what your opinions are on these players and perhaps try to convince me different on the likes of Luck, McCoy, or Gore.
I've got my friends and family league offline-draft coming up and to prepare I've been doing a number of mock drafts. I think it's important to actively draft before your leagues that way you'll have a sense of where clusters of players are going and where you might need to reach or where you might be able to wait depending on where you're drafting. I've also noticed that I'm avoiding certain players, players I've no interest in drafting even if they're the "best options" left on the board. Here are 5 players that I'm avoiding in this year's draft.
First Round: Andrew Luck
Luck's ADP has been creeping to the first round, but even in the second round I'm avoiding Luck and really any QB. This isn't to say I don't believe Luck will be the best fantasy QB (it's possible) but rather I don't like the value of taking a QB in the first or even second round. The first three rounds are really where you should be drafting a solid core of consistent performers for your fantasy team where they'll be getting 20+ touches as an RB, or 10+ touches as a WR. There's actually a very limited number of these despite potential upside candidates or "sleepers", there are perhaps 5 first round graded RBs these days? Another handful are going in the second where they might have previously gone in the first? If you want to get yourself a pair of bell-cow backs you're going to have to invest early. I actually like the value you can find at RB late, but most of that is potential and I prefer to have some solid choice up top to lock in my weekly fantasy scores. Alternatively there are plenty of other fantasy options at QB that will offer the weekly boom potential that Luck will without the cost of a first or second round choice. Big Ben for instance can be had in the fourth or fifth round and he'll be working in an offense that's a very close proximity to the Colts in terms of passing volume and surrounding talent, while also having perhaps a worse Def. I'm avoiding Luck, and if you're looking for top tier QB talent I'd say look for Big Ben in rounds 4-5.
Second Round: LeSean McCoy
Previously my avoid in the first round, McCoy's ADP has been dropping likely due to a combination of "expert" pessimism and injury woes. Even in the second round I'm still avoiding McCoy, I just don't like his situation. Certainly Rex Ryan likes to run the ball, the Bills will HAVE to run the ball, and the Bills have a defense that makes relying on the run feasible, yet I do not trust that offensive line to allow McCoy room to run. Sure the Bills have more weapons than Rex had during his time with the Jets, however the Jets have had a much better line than the one the Bills are working with this season. Did you watch last night's preseason game? The Bills struggled getting anything going on the ground against the Browns line, didn't manage to score until the final minutes of the game against the Browns 3s and 4s. McCoy is a talent, and he's certainly going to be given an opportunity, I just don't like his chance at producing like an RB1 when I have choices like Jeremy Hill, Matt Forte going just before and C.J. Anderson, Justin Forsett, or Melvin Gordon going just after. I believe there are "more sure" options around McCoy's ADP that I'd rather go with.
Third Round: Frank Gore
I'm just not high on Gore, I haven't been in a while and it's more to do with me than to do with the player. I won't be trying to convince you to skip on Gore as well, but I just like others around him more. The Colts have been very pass oriented due to their "inability" to run the ball despite the only RB whose appeared to have struggled for them being Richardson. Gore is the most talented RB they've had in a long while but Gore is also 32 and going to a new system with Indy. The 49ers used Gore as their bell-cow and while Indy will lean more on their running game now that Gore's in town, they're still likely to end up around 40:50 in the Run:Pass split. He does have a few positives going for him, You can't put 8 in the box against him like they did in SF, he'll have plenty of chances to score, and he'll likely have a lot of garbage time carries as the Colts try to hold onto a lead. So perhaps you shouldn't be avoiding this back whose going on the back end of the third round and is likely going to see 20 touches a game (He'll likely see ~5 targets in the passing game ea. week), but I am. Preferring the receiving options in the third round such as Hopkins, Matthews, and Cooks each of which are set to be the primary target on their offenses.
Fourth Round: Carlos Hyde
Perhaps I just don't like running backs? The fourth round is my least favorite round to be drafting in right now. I just don't like the talent that's being slotted into it so I find myself increasingly likely to draft a QB here (which punts the QB Streaming Strat) or "reaching" a bit on a chance like Abdullah or Stewart, neither sure things but both looking primed for great seasons. Carlos Hyde is perhaps my least favorite back slotted in this season and it's due to the team he's on. It's increasingly likely that the 49ers are going to be much worse than what I've been hearing. They've lost a ton of talent this past offseason yet apparently they're still going to be competitive despite also having lost their HC. I'm passing on this team, I don't believe they have the defense to keep them in games and thus allow them to pound the rock 20+ times. Nor do we know if Hyde can handle a full season as a Bell-Cow or that the Smith-Kaep connection is going to force that 8th man out of the box. I'm staying away from Hyde and I like talent available in the 5th and 6th more than I do this RB.
Fifth Round: DeSean Jackson
He'll produce like a fifth round, it's essentially guaranteed, but in my PPR league's I'm avoiding this individual at all costs. He's got a crap shoot of a QB throwing him the ball behind perhaps the worst line in football. Additionally that team wants to pound the rock, which will likely end up in a lot of third and longs and 3&Outs. He just doesn't receive the targets to justify the pick, despite his Fantasy Points per a Target being relatively high compared to other options. Jackson is exactly what he's been for a while, and he's probably good value for you in the fifth round in a standard league. However even in a .5 PPR league I'm avoiding Jackson even if he's slipping the fifth round, the targets just aren't there and you'll find options like Marshall, Cooper, and Edelman just a few spots later.
So there you have it, my 5 players I'm avoiding this year. Not a one has been drafted in any of my Mocks, nor will they find themselves on my league rosters once those drafts happen. Let me know in the comments what your opinions are on these players and perhaps try to convince me different on the likes of Luck, McCoy, or Gore.
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